"The Great Demographic Reversal and its consequences"

Spiralling inflation, a war in Europe, and supply chain disruptions, the like of which have not been seen in decades. It's little wonder that stock markets have reacted adversely to the resumption of an upward trend in interest rates and the first moves to withdraw quantitative easing.

Leading Central banks, accustomed to decades of ultra-low interest rates and easy money, clearly saw the re-emergence of inflation as transitory, the result of short-term factors that will abate in time. And indeed, the War in Ukraine will eventually come to a resolution, the global energy supply will be remapped, and food security restored.

But there is something bigger happening. A trend established three decades ago is reversing, and it will have significant long-term consequences for cross border trade and the world economy. A global demographic revolution is underway. The working-age population as a proportion will fall everywhere, except in Africa.

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