This article comes from Black Rock
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the most serious security situation and humanitarian crisis in Europe since WWII, in our view. It’s also the most dangerous standoff between the U.S. and Russia since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Our BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator is hovering at heightened levels, meaning markets are focused on political risks.
Geopolitical events typically have a modest and short-lived impact on markets and economies. Our analysis of 68 risk events since 1962 shows that. The Ukraine crisis is different. The war is having a direct and likely lasting effect, we believe, in large part because of its upward pressure on commodities prices. De-globalization is poised to accelerate amid Russia’s increased isolation from the global economy, ongoing sanctions and export controls, and a push for self-reliance and diversifying supply chains.