"CANDIDATES MATTER 2022 - Midterm Elections: Outcomes & Implications"

This article comes from Mehlman, Castagnetti, Rosen, and Thomas

While 2022 may officially be a “change election,” it was the least change-y change election since 2002:

7/28 (98%) incumbent Governors won reelection

28/28 (100%) Senate incumbents won  356/365 (97.5%) of House incumbents won

17/17 Trump states elected a Republican Senator… 15/16 Biden states elected a Democrat

Voters sought stability at a time of heightened disruption:

2022 resembled 2020, where voters sought less chaos (Biden > Trump) without a mandate for radical change

Candidates mattered: GOP challengers lost Senate races where they frightened voters with extremist positions and/or ran weak campaigns reflecting inexperience

GOP incumbents mostly won when they focused on today’s challenges rather than yesterday’s conspiracies

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